Are You Not Being Entertained? The Decline of the Goals from Open Play
A key narrative of the EPL season so far concerns the decline of scoring in open play and how clubs are finding goals more from set-pieces as an alternative.
Looking at goal sources to matchday 11 the prior season, there have been a drop of 39 goals in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer overall.
If we look at the broader view, the number of shots sides are producing reveal an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than at this stage previously.
And despite the big increase in set-play finishes, we've actually seen only two additional shots produced from them excluding spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency sides have been at discovering methods to net from dead-ball chances.
Goal Statistics Reveal an Interesting Narrative
Over 300 goals notched in 110 games so far calculates at nearly 2.75 goals per game, if this persists for the entire campaign would be the lowest for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).
However, only 196 goals scored in open play translates to 1.78 each match and is tracking to be the smallest for 16 years, from 16 years ago (1.76 average).
2009-10 additionally represents the unique EPL campaign to see scoring at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).
Which Teams Are Most Responsible?
Regarding scoring from open-play, Wolves have experienced by far the biggest decrease, registering a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than this point the previous campaign.
Outside of Wolverhampton, the EPL's drop in goals from open play is very much a London phenomenon, with five out of the city's seven teams netting a minimum of five goals fewer from open play than last season.
In fairness, that's largely down to them scoring many scores at the beginning of the previous campaign rather than them really struggling to convert in open-play this campaign.
At the same time City have recorded the most significant jump, with almost every one of the 23 they've scored to date arriving in open-play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
Looking at clubs that came up with the teams that went down that they superseded. Play-off champions the Black Cats have scored an additional three goals in open-play than the Saints managed in matchday 11 on their way to demotion the previous campaign.
In terms of scoring from dead-ball situations (excluding penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have experienced the biggest increase, with both sides replacing the reduction of five goals that they've produced in open play with the same number from set-pieces.
Man United have scored twice as many scores from set-plays as they managed in the 11 games last season ahead of their coach took charge, while Sunderland additionally prove better at scoring than the club they replaced they superseded.
Manchester City seem unaware of the memo about netting additional goals from set-pieces, as they've scored three fewer than last season, like Forest, though this may result from the altered approach they're working to install.
General Tendencies
Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham – represent the current campaign's primary examples by recording fewer goals from open-play and more from set-pieces, while Man City represent the unique club to go against the grain to date by doing the complete reverse.
It remains to be seen to observe if teams continue to rely so heavily on set-plays as matches continue or if they regain their overall inventiveness and start netting additional scores in open-play too.
