Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.